{"id":1726,"date":"2015-11-25T15:28:07","date_gmt":"2015-11-25T13:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sergiumotreanu.ro\/?p=1726"},"modified":"2015-11-25T15:28:07","modified_gmt":"2015-11-25T13:28:07","slug":"in-orice-scenariu-lipseste-cate-ceva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/?p=1726","title":{"rendered":"\u00cen orice scenariu lipse\u0219te c\u00e2te ceva"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Au trecut mai bine de o sut\u0103 de ani \u0219i noi \u00eenc\u0103 mai credem c\u0103 Primul R\u0103zboi Mondial a \u00eenceput deoarece un \u021bache de 19 ani \u0219i 11 luni (Gavrilo Princip)\u00a0l-a \u00eempu\u0219cat pe arhiducele Francisc Ferdinand, succesorul tronului Imperiului Austro-Ungar.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 avionul rus a intrat \u00een spa\u021biul aerian turc, nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 pilo\u021bii au gre\u0219it &lt;&lt;inten\u021bionat&gt;&gt; traiectoria \u0219i au jucat la intimidare, nu \u0219tiu de c\u00e2te ori sau dac\u0103 turcii I-au somat \u00eenainte s\u0103 trag\u0103, dar consider c\u0103 din punct de vedere diplomatic\u00a0s-a gre\u0219it. Mai \u00eent\u00e2i se \u00eencercuie\u0219te avionul, dup\u0103 care se \u00eencearc\u0103 escortarea acestuia \u00een afara grani\u021belor; urm\u00e2nd ca \u00een cazul unui comportament agresiv s\u0103 se trag\u0103 focuri de avertizare. \u00centr-un final, se impune\u00a0\u0219i dobor\u00e2rea aparatului de zbor considerat periculos. Dac\u0103 s-au \u00eent\u00e2mplat toate astea, Turcia are un alibi puternic. Dac\u0103 nu, nu.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ro.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Organiza%C8%9Bia_Tratatului_Atlanticului_de_Nord\">\u201dP\u0103r\u021bile convin ca un atac armat \u00eempotriva uneia sau mai multora dintre ele \u00een <strong>Europa sau America de Nord<\/strong>\u00a0va fi considerat ca un atac \u00eempotriva tuturor \u0219i \u00een consecin\u021b\u0103, dac\u0103 se va produce un asemenea atac armat, fiecare dintre ele, exercit\u00e2nd dreptul s\u0103u individual sau colectiv la autoap\u0103rare, recunoscut de articolul 51 al Cartei Na\u021biunilor Unite, va da asisten\u021b\u0103 P\u0103r\u021bii sau P\u0103r\u021bilor atacate, prin luarea \u00een consecin\u021b\u0103, individual \u0219i concertat cu celelalte p\u0103r\u021bi, acelor m\u0103suri ce vor fi considerate necesare, inclusiv folosirea for\u021bei armate, pentru a restaura \u0219i a men\u021bine securitatea zonei Nord-Atlantice.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u0219adar, celebrul articol 5 din\u00a0Tratatul NATO\u00a0protejeaz\u0103 doar \u021b\u0103rile agresate \u0219i, oric\u00e2t de stupid ar p\u0103rea,\u00a0doar \u00een Europa \u0219i America de Nord (aici sunt extrem de mali\u021bios).\u00a0\u00cen cazul de fa\u021b\u0103, Turcia e mai degrab\u0103 statul agresor, iar agresiunea se petrece \u00een Asia, a\u0219a c\u0103 situa\u021bia e cel pu\u021bin interpretabil\u0103 din punct de vedere juridic.\u00a0Istoria, \u00eens\u0103, ne-a ar\u0103tat de prea multe ori c\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd armele vorbesc, legile tac.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Acum s\u0103 revenim la o chestiune de pur\u0103 tactic\u0103 militar\u0103.\u00a0Anali\u0219tii se \u00eentreab\u0103 de ce ru\u0219ii nu bombardeaz\u0103 pozi\u021biile ISIS, \u00een schimb fac raiduri deasupra opozan\u021bilor regimului Bashar al-Assad. <strong>P\u0103i bre de\u0219tep\u021bilor, dac\u0103 a\u021bi fi v\u0103zut la televizor\u00a0explicat\u0103 m\u0103car o b\u0103t\u0103lie \u00een toat\u0103 via\u021ba voastr\u0103 (cu infanterie, cu c\u0103mile sau cu tancuri) \u0219i dac\u0103\u00a0v-ar duce pu\u021bin \u0219i c\u0103p\u0219orul,\u00a0a\u021bi\u00a0\u0219ti de ce o armat\u0103 nu atac\u0103 \u00een ad\u00e2ncime (spre est) atunci c\u00e2nd flancurile (\u00een cazul de fa\u021b\u0103 cel nordic) sunt\u00a0vulnerabile \u0219i \u00een pericol\u00a0de a fi \u00eencercuite.<\/strong> Exact \u00een situa\u021bia asta se afl\u0103 armata sirian\u0103 (<a href=\"http:\/\/sergiumotreanu.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/ISISmap.png\">ave\u021bi aici harta<\/a>), iar pentru a ajunge s\u0103 aib\u0103 o pozi\u021bie stabil\u0103 \u0219i solid\u0103, trebuie s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i rezolve problemele cu rebelii; doar atunci poate reprezenta o amenin\u021bare serioas\u0103 pentru ISIS. Altfel,\u00a0ei vor ataca spre est, din nord \u0219i sud vor fi ataca\u021bi de al\u021bii \u0219i tot a\u0219a&#8230; iar haosul va continua s\u0103 domneasc\u0103. <strong>Haosul unora,\u00a0ordinea \u0219i bucuria\u00a0altora.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nu voi face deloc specula\u021bii anti-americane, a\u0219a c\u0103 m\u0103 voi preface c\u0103 nu \u0219tiu cine finan\u021beaz\u0103 toate fac\u021biunile care lupt\u0103 \u00eempotriva guvernului sirian, ce-i drept, un guvern poten\u021bial criminal, nereprezentativ \u0219i chiar ilegitim.<\/p>\n<p>Diletantismul, specula\u021bia \u0219i propaganda sunt cele mai puternice instrumente (ca s\u0103 nu le zic arme) din arsenalul jurnalismului. At\u00e2ta vreme c\u00e2t par c\u00e2t de c\u00e2t pertinente, logice \u0219i se muleaz\u0103 pe profilul cititorului, po\u021bi prosti toat\u0103 lumea, tot timpul,\u00a0chiar dac\u0103 Abraham Lincoln spunea <strong>\u201dYou can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1727\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1727\" style=\"width: 439px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/sergiumotreanu.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/LieTruth.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1727 \" src=\"http:\/\/sergiumotreanu.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/LieTruth.jpg\" alt=\"http:\/\/whowhatwhy.org\/2014\/06\/20\/the-art-and-science-of-lies-liars-and-lying\/\" width=\"439\" height=\"263\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1727\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">I do not mind lying, but I hate inaccuracy. (Samuel Butler) http:\/\/whowhatwhy.org\/2014\/06\/20\/the-art-and-science-of-lies-liars-and-lying\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Au trecut mai bine de o sut\u0103 de ani \u0219i noi \u00eenc\u0103 mai credem c\u0103 Primul R\u0103zboi Mondial a \u00eenceput deoarece un \u021bache de 19 ani \u0219i 11 luni (Gavrilo Princip)\u00a0l-a \u00eempu\u0219cat pe arhiducele Francisc Ferdinand, succesorul tronului Imperiului Austro-Ungar. Nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 avionul rus a intrat \u00een spa\u021biul aerian turc, nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 pilo\u021bii [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,7,9],"tags":[1365,1684,1796,2119,2279,2423,2464,2558,2684],"class_list":["post-1726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analize","category-ganduri","category-understanding-the-past","tag-isis","tag-militara","tag-nato","tag-propaganda","tag-rusia","tag-siria","tag-speculatie","tag-tactica","tag-turcia"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1726\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiumotreanu.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}